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October Private Job Growth Exceeds Predictions

Greatest Monthly Job Creation Since July 2023

The ADP Employment Report shows “private employers added 233,000 jobs” in October 2024. According to CNBC, this exceeds the Dow Jones estimate for 113,000 new jobs. The largest gains were with companies of 500+ employees (+140,000) followed by mid-sized companies of 50-249 (+58,000) and 250-499 employees (+28,000). Small companies of 20-49 employees lost ground (-6,000) while the smallest companies of 1-19 employees were on the rise (+10,000).

Relevant to the Copier Channel, Professional and Business Services added 31,000 jobs in October while Information Services added another 7,000. The only private industry losing jobs was Manufacturing (-19,000) which is in-line with the recent labor disputes with port workers disrupting supply chains and manufacturers like Boeing. Beyond that, the local and national impact of the devastating hurricanes in the Southeast cannot be overstated.

Not All Roses

In contrast to the optimistic ADP report, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported an increase of only 12,000 nonfarm payrolls in October. The US unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1%.

The difference between these two reports is unusually stark this month. According to Investopedia, the ADP report is released shortly before the monthly BLS report. “Both reports have very similar methodologies and tend to yield very similar results” so the ADP report is often considered a preview of what to expect from the BLS. “The main difference between the ADP Employment Report and the official BLS report is that ADP only covers non-farm, private employees. As a government body, the BLS survey also includes government employees.”

However, Investopedia goes on to explain: “Beginning in 2017, economists began observing significant divergences between the ADP and BLS figures on national employment, with the ADP estimates consistently higher than government figures. This is likely due to subtle differences in methodology and sampling between the two bodies. ADP’s data is based on the payrolls of their client companies, meaning that their figures must be adjusted to reflect national economic data” (emphasis added).

As ADP “handles payroll for about a fifth of U.S. private employment” according to Investopedia, their report is a very useful snapshot. However, as a business with its own interests and a more limited sample size than a government bureau, it’s best to consider both reports rather than focus solely on the optimistic data.